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WSJ Climate Naysayer Has New Culprit: Big Business

News flash from the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal: we must stop climate change legislation. Why? Because big business wants to make money.

Among the climate naysayers, Bjorn Lomborg occupies a special niche. He is the rational man’s naysayer. He does not deny that climate change is occurring or that greenhouse gases are the cause. He just denies that society should do anything substantive about it.

I have no doubt that the events of the past few months have folks like Lomborg nervous: a pro-environment president, a Congress getting serious about climate legislation, and corporations like General Electric and DuPont actively advocating for a U.S. cap-and-trade system to rein in greenhouse gas emissions. (More here.)

Earlier this year, the opponents of climate legislation adopted what some consider to be a “poison pill” ploy. They argued for the imposition of a carbon tax instead of a cap-and-trade system. It was a surprising turn of events, especially since some of the "proponents" of a carbon tax staunchly oppose taxes in any other guise. Some have speculated that these folks weren’t actually for a carbon tax, but were advocating for one in the belief that they could kill climate legislation by building false momentum for something that would not be politically viable (see here and here). Who knows? That might not have been the case.

But time marches, Congress continues to move forward on a cap-and-trade bill, and things have gotten stranger and stranger. Perhaps the strangest to date is Lomborg's Wall Street Journal op-ed (“The Climate-Industrial Complex,” May 22, 2009). The piece repeats a number of Lomborg’s usual, facile arguments (see here for a critique of some of them). But there was a new one. The movement toward climate change legislation, Lomborg claims, is a ploy by evil businesses to do something really beyond the pale — make money. He warns of “companies using public policy to line their own pockets.”

The mind boggles. I just hadn't expected the WSJ's editorial pages to point to the alleged evils of our capitalist system's profit motive as a reason for not doing something. So if the journal’s going to attack the profit-motive, I guess I'll have to come to its defense.

Whence the Profit Motive

No doubt because of being brainwashed by capitalist papers like the Wall Street Journal, I thought the profit motive was a good thing. After all, isn't bringing home the bacon our economy's bread and butter, to mix a couple of money metaphors? The profit motive … well, motivates. It motivates people to work hard, entrepreneurs to invest, and inventors to innovate. All because of the promise of a payoff, a profit. The bacon.

Sure, there are winners and losers — some make the right investments; others do not. But that is the price we all agree to exact for the progress that capitalism brings.

Climate Problem

So we have a problem. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming and we need to retool our energy infrastructure in the direction of low-carbon technology. Even Lomborg agrees. How best to do that?

Government command and control. One way is a top-down, government-in-your-face approach where specific technological changes are mandated. Most economists will tell you that is a bad idea. It’s inefficient and because technologies are prescribed, it can stifle rather than spark innovation.

Subsidies. Another way is through government subsidies. In this case, the government takes a big pot of money and doles it out to the companies and industries of its choice in the hope that they will come up with the next big thing. I am not enamored of this approach because I doubt the government’s ability to pick the right targets to subsidize (corn, anyone?).

And talk about a cozy, conflicted relationship between government and business. Businesses don’t have to do anything. They don’t have to turn a profit; they just have to feed at the government trough. Ironically, this is the approach that Lomborg, who warns against a cozy, government-backed "climate-industrial complex," favors over all others.

The marketplace. A third approach, and one often favored by economists, is market-based. In this approach, the government does not get to choose how to do things or who gets to do them. The marketplace does. The government’s role is to adjust the rules of the market so that individuals and companies are incentivized to innovate and invest, and to ensure that those rules are followed.

One market-based approach for climate change is a carbon tax. Another is a cap and trade. I find pluses and minuses in both, but tend to favor the cap and trade because it’s the only one that mandates a decline in emissions.

The cap-and-trade approach worked for acid rain. Why? The profit motive had a lot to do with it. With a price on the emissions of acid-rain-causing sulfur oxide emissions, power companies found ways to improve their profit margins through innovation. Emissions decreased at costs well below the initial projections. The desire to turn a profit was not a bad thing; it is what helped make the whole thing work.

The fact that corporations recognize that a carbon-constrained world represents an economic opportunity is not a sign that there is anything wrong with it. It’s a sign that the system would work. 

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Waxman Bill

Avatar Posted by Dan at May 22, 2009 02:56 PM
I also read the Lomberg article and had a similar reaction to it. Although I also read this today:

http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2153

They have a gentleman from the Center for American Progress Joe Romm) who says the initial price of CO2/ton will be $5-$10 and rising to $15 in 2020. From my understanding, this is below EPA's estimate of $13-$17, CA's $18, among others. Carbon capture and sequestration I think becomes viable at $35 or so. I find this estimate troubling, and this from a more left-of-center group. Also, I wonder if the money acquired from the auction of the 15% of the permits will be enough revenue to help spur innovation/be filtered down to the hardest hit families and if it falls below President Obama's projections.

As for the SO2 program, weren't 97% of the permits given away? While this program worked, how did it with so many being given away. Seems counter to Economics 101.

Lastly, mentioning Joe Romm again, on his blog he had a few experts talk about what system the bill sets up. Sounds very reasonable even if counter to what I thought I learned in economics classes.

http://climateprogress.org/[…]/

Thanks,
Dan


Dr. Chameides replies -

Avatar Posted by Erica Rowell (Editor) at May 22, 2009 03:28 PM
Dan, There are many ways to do a cap and trade. One of the contentious issues is how to allocate the emissions, i.e., give them away or auction. Another issue of concern is the price of the carbon. All of these issues are secondary to the sanctity of the cap. As long as the cap is adhered to, the emissions are cut and the program accomplishes what is intended.

cap trade

Avatar Posted by carbonicus at May 26, 2009 05:19 PM
Grok - A market that the government creates is not a free market. Is that why you call it a "market-based approach"?

What Lomborg is pointing out is that these corporations (e.g. US CAP) preemptively capitulated to insure they would get free allowances rather than having to pay for them at auction. This is why, when US CAP members (who helped write the cap/trade portions of the bill) testifying before Congress were asked "would you support the bill if ALL allowances are auctioned off?" they answered "no". This is government a) creating markets out of thin air, and b) picking the winners and losers based on political support.

Finally, please answer one question. How do you justify such a policy when the cost is between 1-4% of GDP EVERY YEAR ($140 billion - $560 billion) for a predicted difference in temperature of less than one tenth degree Celsius by 2050 and less than two tenths degree C by 2100? Please justify that equation for me in any way that can pass the red face test.

Thank you in advance for your response.

No red face

Avatar Posted by Erica Rowell (Editor) at May 27, 2009 03:49 PM
Dr. Chameides responds:

carbonicus -

1. Lomborg's point was actually that we should oppose climate legislation because corporations stand to turn a profit.

2. The corporations will eventually have to pay for their allowances. The free allowances are provided to allow for a period of transition for consumers more so than corporations which can simply pass the costs on down the line.

3. The estimated costs are well below 4% GDP. Please check the McKinsey study.

4. Yes, the Waxman-Markey bill by itself will not be adequate. We need international action. Using that as an argument against action on climate in the U.S. would be akin to my telling the IRS I should not have to pay taxes since my taxes are such a very very small part of the total federal revenue. And more importantly, the Waxman-Markey bill has specific language to allow the president to impose carbon tariffs on imports from other countries that do not have climate caps. Because of the size of our market, this will effectively force them to adopt carbon caps. And with international action, we will have a significant effect on global climate. I don't have a mirror but I don't think I have a red face.

Climate Industrial complex

Avatar Posted by carbonicus at May 28, 2009 09:05 AM
Grok - While I appreciate the response, I disagree completely.

1. You are misrepresenting Lomborg's point to suit your argument. Lomborg simply suggests that the corporations who have preemptively capitulated and joined the bandwagon have done so to get free allowances, which they'll use to make billions and not reduce their emissions in the short term. When the allowances run out, they'll stick it to their customers. That's an unholy alliance.

2. The free allowances might avoid stiff costs to consumers in the short run, but eventually they'll run out and the costs passed directly to consumers. In the meantime, the free allowances are nothing more than a political payoff for corporate support, which the administration can tout as support from big name corporations as they try and sell this to the public and ram it through Congress.

3. The Obama administration has already confirmed that the costs are in the range of 1-4%. When announcing his policy, he said that the administration expects to raise approx. $646 billion over 8 years from cap/trade. In a private briefing of members of the senate finance committee in late February, Jason Furman, Dep. Director of the National Economic Council (cabinet position) said that the administration thought they could actually raise 2-3 times this amount over that period. The U.S. is a $14 trillion economy. You do the math. CBO figures are in this range. Nordhaus, Tol, and many other credible economists say the same.

4. Your analogy is apples and orangutans. You indirectly concede my point about the huge cost and the environmentally inconsequential (temperature) benefit. Further, carbon tariffs are protectionism and China and India trying to pull hundreds of millions out of poverty won't be bullied by trade tariffs.

Mark my words. This doesn't end well for America and will do nothing for the climate that can be differentiated from natural climate variability.

Dr. Chameides responds -

Avatar Posted by Erica Rowell (Editor) at May 28, 2009 02:13 PM
carbonicus,

1. Corporations cannot profit from allowances if they are required, as they are in the bill, to pass savings on to the consumer.

2. Free allowances were used in the acid rain cap-and-trade program. Was that a political payoff to allow a bill to be rammed through Congress?

3. You say when the free allowances run out, the companies will pass costs on to consumers. So I gather that you do agree that the allowances are to benefit consumers. Then why are they a political payoff to the companies?

4. The country that is pivotal is China. We don't know yet what China will do, but let's see what happens. The fact is that Waxman-Markey allows for a reasonable U.S. response if China does not take a cap. So pointing to China as a reason for inaction is sort of a red herring -- unless of course your opposition to the bill has nothing to do with China. In which case, why bring it up?

5. Your cost estimate assumes that the program's cost is equal to the dollars collected by the sale of the allowances. This is not the case. Much of the allowance value merely transfers from one party in the economy to another which nets out. Economic studies of Waxman-Markey and similarly sized predecessors (e.g., Lieberman-Warner) show macro impacts typically from 0.5 - 2.5 % depending on year and assumptions about low-carbon technology availability, economic growth, etc.

6. And don't forget that the costs of inaction will be dear. I gather you are not concerned about those costs and want us all to sit on our hands. That's a bet I am not willing to make. To quote someone: "Mark my words. This [will not] end well" if we sit on our hands and do nothing about global warming.

Lomborg Misquoted

Avatar Posted by David at May 27, 2009 09:00 AM
You appear to have missed the point of Lomborg's article.

He is not claiming that "companies using public policy to line their own pockets" is an argument in itself against large, immediate carbon cuts - but rather that we should be aware of their motives when they promote such policies.

His argument against large, immediate carbon cuts is that they are not effective or efficient.

Lomborg uses Spain as an example to show that the policies sought by some companies are not always good for the rest of the economy:

"Spain has been proclaimed a global example in providing financial aid to renewable energy companies to create green jobs. But research shows that each new job cost Spain 571,138 euros, with subsidies of more than one million euros required to create each new job in the uncompetitive wind industry. Moreover, the programs resulted in the destruction of nearly 110,000 jobs elsewhere in the economy, or 2.2 jobs for every job created."

Was that really a case of "winners and losers", where the "losers" simply didn't "make the right investments"?!

Dr. Chameides replies -

Avatar Posted by Erica Rowell (Editor) at May 28, 2009 02:29 PM
David,

1. Let's agree to disagree on who's missing the point.

2. I am mystified by your saying that Lomborg "was not claiming that 'companies using public policy to line their own pockets' is an argument" when it is a direct quote from his piece?

3. The fact that "we should be aware of their [i.e., business's] motives [to make a profit] when they promote such policies" is hardly news, especially in the WSJ of all places. Companies are in business to make money; that is what they do. And if they stopped making money, guess what? They'd be out of business. The fact that businesses hope to make money off of cap and trade is no more an argument against cap and trade than the fact that chemical companies made money off of developing replacements for freons is an argument against the Montreal Protocol banning freons.

3. What do you mean by "immediate cuts"? Significant emission reductions are not required for more than a decade and continue to play out until mid-century. Hardly immediate.

4. Yes, it can be argued that Spain's leap into renewables has not been cost-effective. But how did Spain do it? Not using market mechanisms like cap and trade but with tariffs, government subsidies, and technological mandates. This is hardly an argument against cap and trade.

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We are on an unsustainable course. While world populations and consumption grow, resources diminish and global warming threatens our way of life. We must find a more sustainable path. But how?

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