DURHAM, N.C. – A recent study, conducted by Duke University researchers Pat Halpin, John Fay and Andre Boustany, predicts that climate change could have significant effects on the world’s marine protected areas.

Halpin, director of the Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment, presented their findings at the 2009 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Chicago on Feb. 13.

In his presentation, Halpin stressed that while it is common to focus on terrestrial effects of climate change, it’s imperative that scientists look at the effects of climate change on the other 70 percent of our planet that is beneath the ocean’s surface.

“Our marine protected areas are about to experience an overdose of temperature, acidification and nutrients,” he said. “Mapping the potential risks now can help us tease out the expected locations of climate change dosage and climate change tolerance in our oceans.”

Increased temperature, changes in the ocean’s biochemical environment and changes in sea level due to climate variations can lead to habitat changes, changes in marine species’ migratory routes and shifts in their abundance, Halpin said. These factors can alter marine ecosystems significantly, and have notable impacts on human populations as well, creating shifts in resource use, changes in coastal populations and increases in engineered shorelines.

According to his team’s study, the risk of potential negative effects of climate change is especially elevated in higher latitudes and along continental margins, a geographic trend which Halpin said corresponds with the historical placement of marine protected areas. He pointed out that with the concentration of protected areas in the near-shore waters of nations in the northern hemisphere, mixed with the elevated human impacts in these areas, we could potentially see significant changes in these marine environments in the very near future.

However, Halpin noted that the sensitive coral reefs in the tropics are equally sensitive to climate change, even if the predicted temperature changes are not as extreme in these regions.

“Species in the tropics have generally evolved to tolerate consistent temperature regimes. Increasing the temperature in tropical reef systems by just one degree Celsius can elevate the risk for coral bleaching events,” he said. “While the highest ocean temperature changes are predicted for high latitudes, a significantly smaller dose of temperature increase for a coral reef ecosystem at the edge of its tolerance can be equally devastating.”

Halpin said studies like his will be necessary in dealing with future effects of climate change, and for guiding future monitoring and planning programs to increase the resilience of the world’s marine protected areas.

“Marine protected areas are our first line of defense in our struggle to sustain ocean resources and ecosystems,” he said. “With knowledge about potential impacts we can do a better job of anticipating where and how to take more targeted and effective actions.”

John Fay is a research associate and instructor at the Nicholas School’s Geospatial Analysis Program. Andre Boustany is a marine biologist in the Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab and a collaborator in PROJECT GloBAL (Global Bycatch Assessment of Long-lived Species), a joint venture of Duke University and the Blue Ocean Institute. He received his PhD from Stanford University.